- by Prabir Purkayastha
- The Guardian
- Issue #2047
The recent Australia, US, and UK $368 billion deal on buying nuclear submarines has been termed by Paul Keating, a former Australian Labor prime minister, as the “worst deal in all history.” It commits Australia to buy conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines that will be delivered in the early 2040s. These will be based on new nuclear reactor designs yet to be developed by the UK.
Meanwhile, starting from the 2030s, “pending approval from the US Congress, the United States intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed.” (Trilateral Australia-UK-US Partnership on Nuclear-Powered Submarines, 13th March 2023; emphasis mine)
According to the details, this agreement commits Australia to buy from the US eight new nuclear submarines, to be delivered from the 2040s through the end of the 2050s. If nuclear submarines were so crucial for Australia’s security, for which it broke its existing diesel-powered submarine deal with France, this agreement provides no credible answers.
For those who have been following the nuclear proliferation issues, the deal raises a different red flag. If submarine nuclear reactor technology and weapons-grade (highly enriched) uranium are shared with Australia, it is a breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to which Australia is a signatory as a non-nuclear power. Even the supplying of such nuclear reactors by the US and the UK would constitute a breach of the NPT. This is even if such submarines do not carry nuclear but conventional weapons as stated in this agreement.
So why did Australia renege on its contract with France, which was to buy 12 diesel submarines from France at a cost of $67 billion, a small fraction of its gargantuan $368 billion deal with the US? What does it gain, and what does the US gain by crossing France, one of its close NATO allies?
To understand, we have to see how the US looks at the geostrategy, and how the Five Eyes – the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand – fit into this larger picture. Clearly, the US believes that the core of the NATO alliance is the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada for the Atlantic and the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia for the Indo-Pacific. The rest of its allies, NATO allies in Europe and Japan and South Korea in East and South Asia, are around this Five Eyes core.
What does the US get out of this deal? On the promise of eight nuclear submarines that will be given to Australia two to four decades down the line, the US gets access to Australia to be used as a base for supporting its naval fleet, air force, and even US soldiers.
The words used by the White House are, “As early as 2027, the United Kingdom and the United States plan to establish a rotational presence of one UK Astute class submarine and up to four US Virginia class submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth, Western Australia.” Clearly, all the support structures required for such rotations are what a foreign military base has, therefore they will function as US bases.
Who is the target of the AUKUS alliance? This is explicit in all the writing on the subject and what all the leaders of AUKUS have said: it is China. In other words, this is a containment of China policy with the South China Sea and the Taiwanese Strait as the key contested oceanic regions. Positioning US naval ships including its nuclear submarines armed with nuclear weapons makes Australia a front-line state in the current US plans for the containment of China. Additionally, it creates pressure on most Southeast Asian countries who would like to stay out of such a US versus China contest being carried out in the South China Sea.
What is difficult to understand is what Australia gains from such an alignment. China is not only the biggest importer of Australian goods, but also its biggest supplier. In other words, if Australia is worried about the safety of its trade through the South China Sea from Chinese attacks, the bulk of this trade is with China. So why would China be mad enough to attack its own trade with Australia?
For the US it makes eminent sense to get a whole continent, Australia, to host its forces much closer to China than 8,000-9,000 miles away in the US. Though it already has bases in Hawaii and Guam in the Pacific Ocean, Australia and Japan provide two anchor points, one to the north and one to the south in the eastern Pacific Ocean region. The game is an old-fashioned game of containment, the one that the US played with its NATO, Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), and Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) military alliances after World War II.
The problem that the US has today is that even countries like India, who have their issues with China, are not signing up with the US in a military alliance. Particularly, as the US is now in an economic war with a number of countries, not just Russia and China, such as Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia. While India was willing to join the Quad – the US, Australia, Japan, and India – and participate in military exercises, it backed off from the Quad becoming a military alliance. This explains the pressure on Australia to partner with the US militarily, particularly in Southeast Asia.
It still fails to explain what is in it for Australia.
It makes sense only if we understand that Australia now sees itself as a cog in the US wheel for this region. And it is a vision of US naval power projection in the region that today Australia shares. The vision is that settler colonial and ex-colonial powers – the G7-AUKUS – should be the ones making the rules of the current international order. And behind the talk of international order is the mailed fist of the US, NATO, and AUKUS. This is what Australia’s nuclear submarine deal really means.