- by Graham Holton
- The Guardian
- Issue #2160
Bolivia’s 17 August general election saw a loss for the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. MAS has dominated Bolivian politics for nearly twenty years. Its defeat spells an end to the political career of the founder of MAS, Evo Morales. Morales was first elected president in 2006, as part of the 2000s ‘pink tide’ of left-wing leaders who were swept into power across Latin America. He stood along Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez as the symbol of Latin America’s new left.
During his presidency Morales expanded the rights of the country’s Indigenous majority, the Aymara, Quechua as well as the Chiquitano, Guaraní and Moxeño peoples. He defended coca growers against US-backed eradication programmes and diverted natural gas profits into much needed social programs.
According to the electoral court’s preliminary tally, centre-right Rodrigo Paz Pereira has won 32.2 per cent of the vote, and right-wing Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga won 26.9 per cent. The official MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, finished sixth with 3.2 per cent of the vote. Morales had called for a boycott of the vote, resulting in 19.1 per cent of the ballots being null and void. A power struggle between Morales and Luis Arce fractured the MAS bloc and handed the opposition its first real shot at victory in decades. There will be a second round in October.
The election was dominated by the poor state of the economy. On his win Paz Pereira said Bolivia is “calling for a change to the political system” and that “This economic model must change.” Bolivia is enduring its worst economic crisis in four decades, with a desperate shortage of US dollars to buy wheat imports. Fuel shortages have paralysed the country. Inflation has jumped to 23 per cent. Bolivia is also marked by racial and ideological division.
Under MAS Bolivia oriented towards China, Russia, and Iran, and away from the US. A new Bolivian administration could mark a shift in diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical alignment back towards the United States, especially around trade and natural resource investments such as lithium. Paz plans to decentralise the government by introducing a ‘50-50 economic model’ in which the central government would manage only half of public funds. The remainder would be designated to regional governments. Quiroga supports deep public spending cuts and a political shift away from Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.
While there has been no evidence of covert US involvement in this election, the win of Paz Pereira means improving US–Bolivia ties, which have been strained since 2008, when Morales expelled the US ambassador, the DEA, and USAID. Influence in the region is always important to the United States.
