- by Graham Holton
- The Guardian
- Issue #2170
The people of Greenland are facing a climate change crisis. The transformation of its ice sheet, ecosystems, and the lives of its people provide a dramatic preview of the planet’s future if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. What happens in Greenland resonates across the globe, with rising seas and disrupted climates impacting large populations. Greenland acts as a major tipping point in the Earth’s climate system. Warming, which is happening at more than twice the global average rate in Greenland, is having cascading effects globally.
Since the 1990s, Greenland’s ice sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate. Summer melt seasons are starting earlier, lasting longer, and reaching higher elevations. Vast areas of the ice sheet’s surface now melt in summer, forming thousands of meltwater lakes. This water drains to the base of the ice, lubricating the bedrock to allow the ice to flow faster into the ocean. Warmer ocean waters are eroding the floating tongues of glaciers, destabilising them and causing them to calve massive icebergs at an accelerated rate. Some glaciers have doubled their speed.
Large parts of Greenland’s ice-free coast are underlain by permafrost. When permafrost thaws, the ground sinks and becomes unstable, damaging buildings, and infrastructure. That releases carbon and methane that amplify global warming. The sea ice fringes around the coast are declining. With the shorter sea ice season, the ice is thinner and less extensive.
The impact on ecosystems is to disrupt the marine food web, from algae, that grow on the underside of the ice, to the seals and polar bears that depend on it for hunting and resting. Sea ice acts as a buffer, protecting coastlines from storm waves. Its loss leads to increased and severe coastal erosion, threatening coastal communities.
Because it’s ice-covered, Greenland is the largest contributor to global sea level rise. If its ice sheet were to melt, global sea levels would rise by 7.4 metres. Greenland’s ice melt increases flooding, saltwater intrusion, and inundation, threatening coastal cities, island nations, and communities worldwide.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, is a critical global conveyor belt of ocean currents that regulates climate. The massive influx of fresh, cold meltwater from Greenland, which is less dense than saltwater, forms a freshwater cap that disrupts the sinking of the dense, salty water that drives the AMOC. A significant slowdown or collapse of the AMOC could lead to dramatic weather shifts, cooler temperatures in Northwestern Europe, and alter storm tracks and monsoon patterns across the globe. Among other changes, there would be a much greater risk of floods on the east coast of Australia.
These changes directly affect the lives and livelihoods of Greenland’s 56,000 inhabitants. Inuit hunters face extreme danger as the sea ice becomes thinner and more unpredictable. Traditional dog-sledding routes are disappearing, making it harder to hunt for seals, narwhals, and other marine mammals that are central to their culture and diet. The overall ecosystem shift threatens key fish species, such as halibut and shrimp, which are the pillars of Greenland’s economy.
Greenland’s GDP is heavily dependent on fishing, but climate change is making the country a potential mining hotspot. Many in government see climate change giving Greenland access to strategic minerals and new shipping routes. As the ice sheet melts, it opens up new mining opportunities, with significant environmental and ethical concerns. Any development will require careful balancing of economic gain against ecological and cultural costs.
There are potential benefits for Greenlanders, but they come with high environmental and social risks. Mining operations produce emissions that exacerbate global warming. Any mining development will require careful balancing of economic gain against ecological and cultural costs.
Australia is a long way from Greenland, but there’s a warning for us there.
