- by Maximus M
- The Guardian
- Issue #2185
Pauline Hanson. Photo: jfish92 – wikimedia.org (CC0 1.0)
The South Australian Election held on 21 March resulted in an expected landslide re-election victory for popular Labor Premier, Peter Malinauskas. A Labor landslide was widely predicted but for many commentators the question was how well Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) Party would do?
News media of all sorts across Australia have been talking about the of rise of One Nation, and bringing that rise on with free publicity. The results of the South Australian Election shows that One Nation is certainly an emerging political force within Australia. One Nation is most certainly emboldened by gaining three seats in the lower house and four seats in the upper House.
Within the South Australian context, one possible cause is definitely the spectacular failure of the Liberal Party. The Liberals in South Australia have done the unthinkable performing worse than the Liberals did federally in 2025. The multiple shifts in leadership within the Liberal Party at state and federal levels didn’t help.
PHON has been able to secure regional seats. This can be partly seen as failure for Liberals to connect with regional areas, but also can be seen as a lack of any National Party presence within the state. This has left the door wide open for One Nation.
It is not just the regional areas that were targeted. Traditional Labor Seats have also been threatened by the rise of One Nation. The Seat of Elizabeth has been dominated by the ALP for most of its history. It’s still a Labor seat, but there was a 15% decline in support for Labor this election. In the seat of Light there has been a 20% fall in support.
The major question is, will One Nation keep the momentum going? It’s hard to make predictions. Before the South Australian election, many analysts were saying that One Nation is too politically alienated and toxic to gain momentum. PHON has been described as a policy-free party for disaffected people.
The party is not too toxic for many former Liberal voters who put One Nation over Labor. The Liberals putting PHON second on how-to-vote cards didn’t hurt One Nation’s outcomes. Nor did the financial backing of the Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart. If One Nation can continue this momentum, it well could become a third political force, rivalling the Greens politically in scale.
However, it is not set in stone that One Nation will continue this momentum. The real test will be the Farrer by-election this May, and the Victorian State elections this November.
