- by Denis Doherty
- The Guardian
- Issue #2200
Hiroshima Peace Memorial, also widely known as the Atomic Bomb Dome or Genbaku Dome.
As the 81st anniversary of the bombing of two cities in Japan dawns on 6 and 9 August respectively, there has never been more immediate chance of a hot nuclear war breaking out. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has recently moved the clock to 80 seconds to midnight from 90 seconds last year. Where are the flash points?
The wars in Ukraine and Iran have potential to swing out of control as the prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine looms and an Iranian victory in the Arabian Gulf area. In both places there is woeful leadership from the West, with the prize for stupidity going to Trump and his pathetic cabinet.
Meanwhile in Europe many are mentioning the poor quality of the leaders of the UK, France and Germany. Australia’s leadership in these matters is as equally pathetic as the leadership mentioned above. The mix of the US into that soup of mediocrity further endangers the world and leads to a lack of confidence that the world is prepared to draw back from the disaster.
UKRAINE WAR
This war has been slowly grinding its way across the three oblasts of Ukraine which are considered to have majority Russian speakers, the most prominent being Donetsk. There is much joy in the West that Ukraine is “winning.” The reality is quite different. The Russians are advancing and taking more territory.
It is true that Ukraine with the help of NATO and US intelligence and weaponry Ukraine has made some devastating attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and civilian population. On 27 July 11 children at a holiday camp were killed and there was an attack on an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea (a long way from Ukraine). The growing number of attacks by Ukraine into the ‘heart of Mother Russia’ are being hailed in the west as great events or evidence of Ukrainian progress in the war.
Leaders such as those in Germany have boasted of their part in the success, while in Britain, recently deposed PM Keir Starmer boasted of his supply of drones for use by Ukraine.
Recently the Baltic States have allowed Ukrainian drones to use their airspace as they flyover to hit targets in Northern Russia. Previously NATO and the US have hidden behind Ukraine, content to let them take responsibility for outrages against Russia but now the fight is more open. Russia realises it is in a war against NATO, the US and allied countries like Australia.
Analysts in Russia are arguing that the West has no fear that Russia will retaliate and that it has no recognition that Russia has nuclear weapons primed and ready to go at moment’s notice. The chief proponent of this tactic is former Kremlin advisor Sergei Karaganov who recently called for Russia to launch limited nuclear strikes to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. There are calls for missile strikes on countries such as the UK and on their factories producing weapons to give to Ukraine for killing Russians.
The reaction to any of these tactics would not be easy to contain, yet at this moment, the US is seen as “playing games.” Russians are saying that “the spirit of Anchorage is dead” – Anchorage Alaska being where Trump and Putin met in 2025 and seemed to come to agreement.
Now Russian commentators are saying that the USA is “agreement averse.” The USA and Trump have walked back on any agreement of ending the war in Ukraine and appear to be back to full throttle support for Zelensky in his futile attempt to defeat Russia. Thankfully Putin has not yet used any nuclear weapons, but NATO and the US are not making that less likely.
THE US/IRAN CONFLICT
The US has been escalating its attack. Iran has an advantage due to geography and the clever leadership. Iran has long known that in any conflict with the US it would have to practice asymmetric warfare.
What infuriates Trump is that for all the sophistication of the US military, his options are limited. The US is doing a lot of damage, but Iran is retaliating and is on the verge of driving all US bases from nearby countries.
US airplanes are now largely based in Israel and could be staged further afield. The US navy is likewise unable to come within 1,500 kms of the coast of Iran because of the possession of ‘carrier busting’ missiles by the Iranian military.
The combination of Trump’s volatile and erratic behaviour and ego could lead him to use a nuclear weapon. He is known to be unable to accept loss and always wants to be a ‘winner’ but Iran is proving too powerful an adversary.
ISRAEL
Iran may turn its attention again on Israel and it has promised to use a new class of missiles if Israel attacks. Israel too has nuclear weapons. Previous Iranian attacks on Israel have been covered up but the rumours are that the apartheid settler state has suffered massive damage. A renewed attack may tip them over the edge where they use a nuclear weapon.
China and Russia will not stand by and allow Iran to be destroyed so we have the ingredients of a much wider conflict.
Iran still has a stock of enriched uranium. Professor Ted Postol of MIT has said Iran is capable of making a nuclear weapon. Others say that under the right circumstances Pakistan would gladly give Iran a nuclear weapon. The risks are real.
NUCLEAR SAUDI ARABIA
The US has just signed an agreement that Saudi Arabia be given a hand with its nuclear industry. The US has promised light oversight by the IAEA, the body that oversees the use of nuclear power and weaponry. The Saudis would also be allowed to enrich uranium.
There’s a risk that the Saudis may develop nuclear weapons. Trump has subsequently decreed that the Saudis must officially accept the Abraham Accords and recognise Israel. This appears to be an unachievable condition, and the agreement may be terminated.
PROLIFERATION
If Saudi Arabia gets a nuclear weapon, Iran would have to do something similar, followed by Egypt and Türkiye. Iran has not gone down the nuclear weapon path partly because if it had nuclear weapons, nearby nations would want their own. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei the supreme leader of Iran banned nuclear weapons because they cause indiscriminate deaths.
US behaviour in this war is making proliferation more definite and nuclear war more imminent.
INDIFFERENCE
While the risk of nuclear exchange is real and obvious, its not taken very seriously. In Australia the government has done nothing to restrict the US’ war or to discourage it from its present behaviour. Before Anthony Albanese became PM, he promised to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of nuclear weapons (TPNW). He has since remained silent on this issue and has turned to spineless statements such as:
“You know, we choose progress rather than just protest. We choose outcomes rather than outrage, and we choose to deliver real change.”
There’s no sign of the progress Albanese has chosen instead of protest when it comes to war.
All Australians should choose protest about the lack of real change on nuclear disarmament.
